The new report from the National Intelligence Council assessing the forces and choices shaping the world for the next 20 years was released last month. Check out the major trends:
- The rich are aging, the poor are not.
- The global economy is shifting. Weak economic growth will persist in the near term.
- Technology is accelerating progress but causing discontinuities.
- Ideas and identities are driving a wave of exclusion.
- Governing is getting harder.
- The nature of conflict is changing.
- Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention.
The bottom line: “Within states, political order will remain elusive and tensions high until societies and governments renegotiate their expectations of one another,” the report states. “Some major powers and regional aggressors will seek to assert interests through force but will find results fleeting.” Traditional forms of power may prove less able drive outcomes as more players gain veto power.
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